Negotiations to form a government entered a fourth week with no breakthrough on the size of the state.

Behind closed doors, the two largest blocs remain divided over a single number: how much the government should borrow to fund an ambitious infrastructure programme.

Smaller partners, sensing leverage, have begun to float their own demands, complicating an already fragile balance.

The arithmetic of compromise

Officials warn that another fortnight of drift could rattle markets already nervous about the country's fiscal trajectory.

"Nobody wants an election. But nobody wants to be the one who blinked first."

Analysts point to a handful of forces driving the story forward:

  • A disputed borrowing ceiling worth billions
  • Rival visions for regional investment funds
  • Pressure from backbenchers on both sides

Mediators are expected to table a compromise framework within days, though few in the capital are betting on a quick resolution.